Digest for alt.sports.hockey.nhl.mtl-canadiens@googlegroups.com - 5 updates in 3 topics

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Marty <martytest2004@hotmail.com>: Jun 15 09:31PM -0500

Stu Cowen had the exact same protected list as me, pre-Drouin trade. At
forward it was:
 
F: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, Max Pacioretty, Andrew Shaw, Paul
Byron, Alex Radulov, Philip Danault
 
This was pretty simple. After those guys, no fear. Overpriced is still
semi-effective Plekanec (no risk) and 4th line/AHL fodder.
 
Now?
 
Maybe another trade is going to fix this, but if not, then?
 
Well, this is where the Radulov rubber hits the road. Is he willing to re-
sign? Surely a move like getting Drouin appeals to him as it helps the
team now. Still, the Hab's obviously need to sign him now or assume he'll
re-sign elsewhere. With an expansion draft, you can't just let him test
the waters and hope he comes back, because you can't be protecting a
player who walks away a couple of weeks later.
 
Well, actually, there is a possible alternative. The Hab's and him agree
to a contract verbally, expose him, and let him potentially be picked, but
know they will re-sign him later. Lot of trust involved in that. Extremely
unlikely.
 
OK. So, let's assume they can't sign him, there is no side agreement. You
expose him and move on. I guess. That's it.
 
Or, let's assume the alternative scenario. They protect Radulov. The deals
getting done. Who on earth do you expose then? Shaw? That's my best guess.
Everyone else is sure to be picked. Shaw is good enough to be picked, but
at least his contract has a cost/benefit aspect to it. Still, I would
expect him to be picked, and a much greater loss than some of the other
fodder they could have exposed.
 
Marty
Jim Bauch <j.bauch@ca.rr.com>: Jun 15 04:26PM -0700

On Thursday, June 15, 2017 at 12:45:42 PM UTC-7, Gerry wrote:
> Apparently the conditions on the picks are that they only swap hands if Sergachev plays < 40 games next season.
 
I'm seeing conflicting reports on that. First, NHL.com reports that the picks move if he plays MORE THAN 40 games:
 
"Tampa Bay general manager Steve Yzerman said the draft picks will be exchanged only if Sergachev plays 40 games during the regular season and Stanley Cup Playoffs combined with the Lightning next season. He added the second-round pick the Canadiens would send to the Lightning is the Washington Capitals' pick in 2018, acquired by Montreal in the June 24 trade that sent center Lars Eller to Washington."
https://www.nhl.com/news/montreal-acquires-jonathan-drouin-from-tampa-bay/c-289945898?tid=278542340
 
TSN says the same, but flips the pick, with a 2nd going TO Montreal:
 
"Two conditional picks were also exchanged in the deal – a second-rounder going to Montreal and a sixth-round pick heading to Tampa Bay – but neither of those picks will change hands if Sergachev appears in 40 or more regular season or playoff games next year."
http://www.tsn.ca/canadiens-acquire-drouin-from-lightning-for-sergachev-1.780437
 
I think the TSN report must be wrong, because why would Yzerman be commenting on which Habs' second rounder is involved if it's a 2nd going TO Montreal?
 
 
Jim
Jim Bauch <j.bauch@ca.rr.com>: Jun 15 04:57PM -0700

On Thursday, June 15, 2017 at 4:26:05 PM UTC-7, Jim Bauch wrote:
> http://www.tsn.ca/canadiens-acquire-drouin-from-lightning-for-sergachev-1.780437
 
> I think the TSN report must be wrong, because why would Yzerman be commenting on which Habs' second rounder is involved if it's a 2nd going TO Montreal?
 
> Jim
 
And Pierre Lebrun reports same as Gerry's version, which is the one that makes sense to me: the Lightning get the pick upgrade UNLESS Sergachev plays 40+ this season.
 
Jim
Marty <martytest2004@hotmail.com>: Jun 15 09:13PM -0500

Hi everyone. As usual, I drop out after play-off defeat in depression, but
I guess I'm back now, early, because this is interesting.
 
Anyway, my thoughts on this trade. Well, I would call this the wild
riverboat gamble trade. By both teams. It is really hard to know how this
turns out.
 
The upside of both these guys is mysterious. Sergachev is so young, nobody
knows. Will he be sublime offensively and fine defensively, or will he be
a talented but selfish hotdog who drives coaches nuts with some crazy
gambles? In other words, will he be a poor man's Subban that plays akin to
the opinion of his fans or his detractors?! :)
 
Drouin. Is he just another Frenchy deemed too valuable by a Hab's
management team that wants a French star that they overlook all his
character flaws, or have the scored a player who already went through his
rough, character development period in Tampa, and is wiser and ready to
rise to the occasion in Montreal? His best stats aren't wildly impressive,
but they are decent and improving, and that darn contract looks nice. Not
crazy high. Long. Almost no distractions by it. If he is even decent (50
point player) he lives up to it. If he is better, he can be a fan star
with almost no negatives given the not-insane contract.
 
 
I remember yesterday how easy it was to figure out who to protect in the
draft, at forward. Everyone you wanted to, easy. Now what?
 
Marty
Gerry <gerry14@hotmail.com>: Jun 15 04:57PM -0700

Update time... $5.5M for Drouin, and just supposing the rest stay around... oh yeah and _obviously_ if Drouin is worth $5.5M, so is Galchenyuk, right...? I maxed out some of the other remaining FAs too. And of course, there's still somebody to lose in expansion...

Pacioretty ($4.5M) - Danault ($0.9125M) - Radulov (??UFA - $6M??)
Drouin ($5.5M) - Galchenyuk (??RFA - $5.5M??) - Gallagher ($3.75M)
Lehkonen ($0.839167M) - Plekanec ($6M) - Byron ($1.167M)
Martinsen ($0.675M) - Mitchell ($1.2M) - Shaw ($3.9M)
McCarron ($0.863M)

Markov (??UFA - $4M??) - Weber ($7.857M$)
Beaulieu (??RFA - $2.5M??) - Petry ($5.5M)
Emelin ($4.1M) - Benn ($1.1M)
Davidson ($1.425M) - Jerabek ($0.925M)
 
Price ($6.5M)
Montoya ($1.0625M)

Total: $75.776M
 
So at one point it was said the PA wouldn't use the escalator, then maybe they wouldn't use it all, so I don't know, but the cap ought to fall in around $74-75Mish depending on what escalator they settle on. I think with the above lineup, minus expansion, minus them actually not paying one or two of the FAs quite that much, it'll fly.
 
l8r,
Gerry
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