Digest for rec.sport.tennis@googlegroups.com - 25 updates in 5 topics

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

John Liang <jliang70@gmail.com>: Jun 28 07:03AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 8:47:23 PM UTC+10, Whisper wrote:
 
> Yes, 5% is not 0%.
 
> 5% is something like a 5 set final where Fed is down 1-3 in 5th but
> manages to win in the end.
 
That was not what you said before the final. Even that is the case your maths skill is pretty poor, Tomic was given some 35% odd in his matches against Nadal, Fed, Djoker in their slam match but he fail to win a single set. If Fed was given a 35% odd by you he should be winning in straight, right?
Court_1 <olympia0000@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:03AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 7:52:47 AM UTC-4, Whisper wrote:
 
> > LOL. No matter what happens, I can pretty much assure you that it won't be a straight set outcome either way.
 
> No offense, but your assurance & $2 buys me a $2 coffee.
 
> : )
 
And no offense to you but your assertion that Nadal will straight set Federer if they meet in the final is worth even less than my assurance plus $2. That's a stupid prediction. It won't be a straight set affair no matter which player wins.
Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 07:03AM -0700

On Monday, June 26, 2017 at 6:37:26 PM UTC-7, jdeluise wrote:
 
> All that being said, I can't really read too much into his win over
> Zverev, but I do agree it was impressive and I loved seeing him play as
> well as he did.
 
Great post.
 
Feds-Lubo seems in large part to be all about re-upping ASSERTIVE Roger. Lubo has Feds hitting over the backhand much more often, taking it fractionally earlier on both sides, changing up return positions, vaporizing second serve offerings, getting to net about 15% more AND DOING ALL OF THIS NO MATTER WHAT. Which is precisely to your point. Lubo has somehow convinced Federer to NOT listen to the angles of his lesser nature. :) Pressure and situations be damned! :)
 
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John Liang <jliang70@gmail.com>: Jun 28 07:04AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:01:03 PM UTC+10, *skriptis wrote:
 
> Good post. Great way of explaining the math, odds and numbers.
 
> Lots of idiots around here who assume that having e.g. 40% chance
> means the player will lose.
 
When did whimp hire a new slave or sock ?
Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 07:07AM -0700

On Monday, June 26, 2017 at 7:12:47 PM UTC-7, PeteWasLucky wrote:
> In any case, I still suspect Nadal will lose to some boob in the early
> rounds. Watch for some drama about his knees at the upcoming exos :)
 
> In the old days a dead tired nadal would be sure he could beat Federer but after the last three losses against Federer I believe nadal will be having doubts while Federer will be looking to repeat what has done again and again in these matches to cement his believes about his new game and strategy. Federer isn't scared any more.
 
Well, Pete that's the key, if there is one, in the newest iteration of Feds-Rafa. Federer isn't afraid of Rafa now. Reminds me of 1989-1990 when Faldo said of the great Seve Ballesteros, "Well, we aren't afraid of Seve any more. So, that helps."
 
Indeed!
 
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Court_1 <olympia0000@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:16AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 7:57:59 AM UTC-4, Whisper wrote:
> intensity ever. He willed himself to play a truly astonishing level of
> tennis in FO final. Imo a repeat of that level would see him beat Fed
> 64 64 63 type at Wimbledon.
 
But you are comparing apples to oranges, i.e. Nadal's intensity on clay vs his possible intensity off clay. He's not going to beat Federer in straights by a 64 64 63 scoreline on a grass court! Get a grip.
 

 
> I stand by all those posts & still agree 100% with them. What none of
> us knew back then was how Rafa would respond. Now we know. He's really
> upped that level considerably.
 
But we don't know how he'll play at Wimbledon based on his FO performance. He may make the final and win the title but he may lose in round 2 depending on his draw. First of all, we need to see his draw. We also need to see if Djokovic can somehow up his level in time for Wimbledon. He's an unknown factor right now.
 
I think it's wishful thinking for you to think and hope that Nadal will blow Federer off a grass court if they meet in the final. Nadal may beat Federer but blow him off the court?
Court_1 <olympia0000@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:20AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 9:57:25 AM UTC-4, Patrick Kehoe wrote:

 
> 2. The arrival of Lubo has dramatically changed Federer's tactical awareness OR, let's say, Federer's tactical approaches. Finally, Feds has an answer to Toni Nadal. Lubo has Feds buying into a handful of key adjustment tactics that really has put the hurt on Rafa, specifically, but the entire field in general, as well. That's a CRITICAL issue when considering a Feds-Rafa Wimbledon final. Finally, Federer has the ability to put the kind of wrinkles in his offence and return game that has unravelled Toni Nadal's 'normal' tactical mastery over him.
 
> 3. Rafa will want pay back for AO and Sunshine Double defeats. Can't underestimate just gut instinct for getting back at Roger. If Federer has a mental edge, then Rafa has a major chip on the proverbial shoulder heading into any encounter with Feds now. Suddenly HE'S the hunter - mentally - and Rafa LOVES being the hunter, the Fed-Hunter. And we all know the ultimate Fed-Hunter is Rafa.
 
> 4. So, an interesting give and take set of possibilities. Still, Rafa will be in tough to get to a final. That's going to be a real challenge for him.
 
Federer isn't going to play Nadal the same way he played that giraffe Zverev in Halle. Don't you worry! Federer isn't stupid.
Pelle Svanslos <pelle@svans.los>: Jun 28 05:34PM +0300

On 28/06/2017 17.04, John Liang wrote:
 
>> Lots of idiots around here who assume that having e.g. 40% chance
>> means the player will lose.
 
> When did whimp hire a new slave or sock ?
 
Embarrassing.
Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 07:40AM -0700

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 10:01:04 AM UTC-7, *skriptis wrote:
> Wimbledon, but I'd be his biggest fan.
 
> But he isn't, and you described him pretty accurately. I can't
> warm up for such a player with such psyche and mental fortitude.
 
Federer can be read that way, but, in all fairness he's won 92 titles including 18 majors. Has he not shown intestinal fortitude, guts and grit as well as all of that champagne tennis, playing the way he is nearing 36? It hasn't all been grace and flow and elegance. Ci?
 
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Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 07:53AM -0700

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 1:21:46 PM UTC-7, TT wrote:
> surface. It was very close to his best clay form if not the best.
> ...Rafa's best hard form was probably at USO 2010 and AO wasn't even
> close to that.
 
I agree. Though, Rafa was in top gear - for his age - in Melbourne. He played outstandingly well to get to the final and in the final. Could have gone either way.
 
One thinks of Wimbledon 2008. The credit Rafa gets for 2008 Wimbledon was for the fortitude Rafa showed in breaking through their finals history there. As Toni Nadal has spoken about often. Rafa showed the ultimate wilfulness and finishing capability to get past Federer on grass. That was Toni Nadal's belief: beating Federer on grass was the ultimate for Rafa (circa 2008), the ultimate challenge for them. And so was the AO 2017 for Feds, to beat Rafa in a major final again, getting over the mental hurdle and doing it into the 5th to THEN produce a level of tennis Rafa couldn't contain.
 
They both have slain the monster of loss and daunting expectation against the established dominance of the other over them.
 
In that sense, the prospect of Wimbledon and the USO of 2017 has legacy and historical stakes that are/could be off the charts. With and without 18-15, so to speak; though, all the more so because of 18-15.
 
Much still hanging in the balanace.
 
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Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 08:05AM -0700

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 8:32:53 PM UTC-7, Court_1 wrote:
> > close to that.
 
> But the point is that everybody knows Nadal is the greatest ever on clay. Off clay he's not the greatest ever and Federer has five more Wimbledon titles than he does and and seven more hc slams. That has to count for something especially when Federer has altered his game plan a little vs Nadal and has defeated him the last three times they played on different hard court speeds.
 
> If you are going to tell me you are as confident about Nadal's ability to win against ATG Federer at Wimbledon and the USO as you are about his ability to do so at the FO, I'm calling bullshit on that.
 
Quick note: Last 4 times, Basel previously.
 
I'm liking the Toni Nadal/Moya vs. Lubo dueling coaching adjustment war angle.
 
Lubo has Federer buying in/ALL IN to tactical and technical alterations/wrinkles that have made his rivalry a TRUE rivalry. :)
 
Now it will be fascinating to see how the Nadal camp will attempt to counter Lubo's re-jigged Roger. :)
 
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PeteWasLucky <waleed.khedr@gmail.com>: Jun 28 08:06AM -0700

> Well, Pete that's the key, if there is one, in the newest iteration of Feds-Rafa. Federer isn't afraid of Rafa now. Reminds me of 1989-1990 when Faldo said of the great Seve Ballesteros, "Well, we aren't afraid of Seve any more. So, that helps."
 
I like you posts in this thread but Federer and Nadal are not the final yet and for sure aren't guaranteed to be there.
Also grass isn't clay for Nadal where the ball kicks high with 10k rpm and Nadal can chase and get every ball back in court.
 
On grass it's all about shot making and if Federer managed to hit his backhand nicely on HC against Nadal then he will hit better on grass.
 
The slice he used against Zverev was the right thing to do because Zverev is power player and he can overpower Federer from the baseline the same way he did in the last two meetings plus Zverev isn't as good mover like Nadal.
 
But really they are not in the final and will have difficult time reaching there.
 
There are players that can take them out specially big hitters with big serve.
 
Kyrgios defeated Nadal there and he can do it again, and he beat Federer in three TB and lost to him in three TB as well.
 
Zverev can take out Nadal on grass and Federer as well if he isn't playing his best.
 
Djokovic is destined to find his best form soon and it may happen next week.
Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 08:11AM -0700

On Tuesday, June 27, 2017 at 9:40:07 PM UTC-7, Court_1 wrote:
 
> > > If you are going to tell me you are as confident about Nadal's ability to win against ATG Federer at Wimbledon and the USO as you are about his ability to do so at the FO, I'm calling bullshit on that.
 
> > Federer has beaten Nadal the last *4* times they've played not 3. Just saying. I agree with you though.
 
> I know but when Federer beat Nadal in Basel in 2015 Federer wasn't displaying his more aggressive bh/ROS. Plus, in 2015 Nadal was at his all time worst.
 
Fed was actually hitting over the backhand then to and trying to tee off on the second serves; it was like Federer trying to perfect his current set of tactical implementations and FOR ONCE (back then) having the perfect conditions to actually carry them off. I remember that match for that reason. But it didn't translate to a sustainable form of play. Fed didn't have a LUBO type figure to keep him into that mindset. No one could do it back then. FEDERER hadn't felt his athletic mortality. Federer hadn't felt the enforcement of humility that a specific injury can inflict. (His pained back was a week to week/month to month surfacing devil of distraction) The specificity of the knee injury focused reality and LIMITATION upon Federer, in a way he'd obviously never felt before, internalized before.
 
AND OUT OF THAT the voice of Lubo found a kind of relational value, a basis for grounding. And rock-headed Federer FINALLY, totally, listened!
 
P
Patrick Kehoe <pkehoe@telus.net>: Jun 28 08:21AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 2:54:38 AM UTC-7, Whisper wrote:
 
> Imo Rafa will beat Fed in straights if they meet & he plays with the
> same intensity as FO final.
 
> That's my honest opinion & not a troll post.
 
Taking that opinion into account, the question becomes what will it take to get Rafa to play at that level of tennis at Wimbledon? Can he play to that level of a) intensity and b) effectiveness. The first value - that of intensity - I am quite certain THIS would be the year he certainly might produce something like an 'all out' level of driving intensity for win at Wimbledon. As to the second value - effectiveness - there's Rafa's challenge, his truest challenge. Can he expell the kind of energy he needs (running around almost everything) to hit past the big serving, big forehand guys in the first 5 rounds to get back to that vital semi-final level, WHERE, his experience and aura DO positively affect and aid his odds. Seems to be that's his challenge and saying all this, hopefully this is the season he takes it on, relishing the journey. At 31, with 15 majors, WHY NOT? :)
 
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Court_1 <olympia0000@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 08:22AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 11:06:17 AM UTC-4, PeteWasLucky wrote:
 
> There are players that can take them out specially big hitters with big serve.
 
> Kyrgios defeated Nadal there and he can do it again, and he beat Federer in three TB and lost to him in three TB as well.
 
But Kyrgios is suffering with a hip injury I think?
 

> Zverev can take out Nadal on grass and Federer as well if he isn't playing his best.
 
Zverev isn't going to beat either Nadal or Federer IMO.
 

> Djokovic is destined to find his best form soon and it may happen next week.
 
He may but I doubt it, at least not good enough to beat Fedal yet.
 
I think it will probably be a Fedal final (without seeing the draw as obviously my opinion can change.)
Gracchus <gracchado@gmail.com>: Jun 28 08:24AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 8:06:17 AM UTC-7, PeteWasLucky wrote:
 
> I like you posts in this thread but Federer and Nadal are not the final yet and for sure aren't guaranteed to be there.
 
Oops! Yeah, there's that.
 
> Also grass isn't clay for Nadal where the ball kicks high with 10k rpm and Nadal can chase and get every ball back in court.
 
Sacrilege. Nadal could find his invincible clay form on grass, an oil slick, the Badlands of S. Dakota, or the moon. For some reason though, he's only in the mood to find it on clay most of the time.
Carey <carey_1959@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:52AM -0700

Mac could beat SW just with the drop shot and lob. She's a fat-a$$, and it'd be
hilarious to watch.
Gracchus <gracchado@gmail.com>: Jun 28 08:17AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 7:52:08 AM UTC-7, Carey wrote:
 
> Mac could beat SW just with the drop shot and lob. She's a fat-a$$, and it'd be
> hilarious to watch.
 
So now Whisper's given you back full confidence that Mac would crush her, hmm?
If it were just a matter of tennis skills, I'd agree. Serena doesn't *look* like she should be able to get to any ball, but somehow she does it well enough. Then there's Mac's age presenting mobility and fitness issues for him too. Would McEnroe's serve stymie Serena? Would Mac be gasping for breath after a few games? Nobody knows. Neither Serena's results against the women or McEnroe's on the senior tour are enough of an indication. Making Serena look like whale out of water with the drop shot & lob is a delicious fantasy, but really...
Carey <carey_1959@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:22AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 2:34:24 AM UTC-7, Brian W Lawrence wrote:
 
> ---
> This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
> https://www.avast.com/antivirus
 
 
 
wheres Tomic
arahim <arahim_arahim@hotmail.com>: Jun 28 07:23AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 21, 2017 at 2:08:07 AM UTC-7, Bharath Purohit wrote:
> 3. Wawrinka, 6130
> 4. Djokovic, 5715
 
> VAMOOOOSSSS RAFAAAAA
 
Nadal's caught up with Murray on the odds.
Roger Federer 3.25
Andy Murray 5.0
Rafael Nadal 5.0
Novak Djokovic 7.0
Court_1 <olympia0000@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:29AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:23:13 AM UTC-4, arahim wrote:
> Andy Murray 5.0
> Rafael Nadal 5.0
> Novak Djokovic 7.0
 
That's about right. I would say the faves are:
 
1. Fed
2. Nadal
3. Murray(if Murray is healthy?)
4. Djokovic
 
But of course a lot will depend on the draw.
arahim <arahim_arahim@hotmail.com>: Jun 28 07:44AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 7:29:08 AM UTC-7, Court_1 wrote:
> 3. Murray(if Murray is healthy?)
> 4. Djokovic
 
> But of course a lot will depend on the draw.
 
Interstingly Murray and Djokovic lead the USO odds. The bettors seem to think that at some point later in the year Murray and Djokovic will return but too late for Wimbledon.
 
Andy Murray 3.25
Novak Djokovic 3.75
Rafael Nadal 7.0
Roger Federer 7.0
Court_1 <olympia0000@yahoo.com>: Jun 28 07:54AM -0700

On Wednesday, June 28, 2017 at 10:44:09 AM UTC-4, arahim wrote:
> Novak Djokovic 3.75
> Rafael Nadal 7.0
> Roger Federer 7.0
 
Maybe they know something we don't?
Pelle Svanslos <pelle@svans.los>: Jun 28 05:32PM +0300

HONG KONG — Having just traveled to New Zealand, Australia, South Korea,
China, Taiwan and now Hong Kong, I can say without an ounce of
exaggeration that more than a few Asia-Pacific business and political
leaders have taken President Trump's measure and concluded that — far
from being a savvy negotiator — he's a sucker who's shrinking U.S.
influence in this region and helping make China great again.
 
These investors, trade experts and government officials are still
stunned by an event that got next to no attention in the U.S. but was an
earthquake out here — and a gift that will keep on giving America's
allies pain and China gain for years to come. That was Trump's decision
to tear up the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free-trade deal
in his first week in office — clearly without having read it or
understanding its vast geo-economic implications.
 
(Trump was so ignorant about TPP that when he was asked about it in a
campaign debate in November 2015 he suggested that China was part of it,
which it very much is not.)
 
Trump simply threw away the single most valuable tool America had for
shaping the geo-economic future of the region our way and for pressuring
China to open its markets. Trump is now trying to negotiate trade
openings with China alone — as opposed to negotiating with China as the
head of a 12-nation TPP trading bloc that was based on U.S. values and
interests and that controlled 40 percent of the global economy.
 
It is hard to think of anything more stupid. And China's trade
hard-liners are surely laughing in their sleeves.
 
Out here everyone gets it: China has Trump's number. Its officials were
afraid of him at first — with his tough trade talk. But they quickly
realized how easy it was to distract him with shiny objects, like
promises to defuse the North Korea threat for him or by giving stale
sector-specific trade concessions, such as for American beef exports to
China — things China has promised multiple presidents before — that
Trump could brag about.
 
Beijing watched Trump threaten to abandon America's adherence to the
one-China policy if he did not get trade concessions — and then just
fold the minute China's president, Xi Jinping, said he would not take a
phone call from Trump unless he reaffirmed the "One-China" policy.
 
We may call him "Trump" in America, but here it's pronounced "Chump."
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/28/opinion/trump-china-asia-pacific-trade-tpp.html
 
Yup. Paper Tiger.
 
The Saudis also understood the significance of "shiny objects". Boy, did
the funders of ISIS get what they wanted and more. The Europeans, not as
well. Lol.
TT <ascii@dprk.kp>: Jun 28 05:12PM +0300

The Iceberg kirjoitti 28.6.2017 klo 0:27:
> He's not that many points and with Murray on holiday, does anyone know how many more matches he has to win to get there?
 
I think one scenario would be Fed winning Wimbledon by beating Rafa in
the final... and Rafa getting to #1. lol
 
But here's a picture which explains it all!
 
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDaUWqWU0AAUdNl.jpg
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